Is a Recession Coming?

The yield curve identifies yields across varying maturities of debt instruments. The typical shape is upward sloping, with longer term rates generally being higher than shorter term rates. When the yield curve inverts, economists often point to an impending recession. The reason is that lower long term rates indicate expectations of lower interest rates in the future, either from lower inflation or a more loose monetary policy, both of which generally accompany slower growth. See article here, MarketWatch.  See historical article here, NY Times.

Long-Short (Equity-Bond) Investment

Given the historically low interest rate, some investors with long time horizons (philanthropies as an example) are issuing long-dated bonds (i.e., going short) and using the funds to invest (i.e., going long) in the equity markets. As long as equity markets outperform bonds over the time period, the trade creates a positive return. See article here, WSJ.

Inflation Picking Up

The Fed has targeted a 2% inflation rate, but, even with an expanding economy, inflation has remained below this level. Recently, however, the spread on traditional Treasury bonds versus TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) has exceeded 2%, suggesting that investors expect inflation to hit this level in the near future. See article here, WSJ.

Shorting Treasuries

Investors have been expecting interest rates to rise. While this has yet to take place, more traders are taking positions consistent with this view. Potential budget deficits and borrowing costs are also adding to the situation. In response, many investors have reduced their exposure to long-dated Treasuries, as their higher duration would cause a more negative reaction to any increase in rates. Beyond that, other traders have taken increased short positions to benefit from this potential move. See article here, Reuters.

PE and Inflation

When inflation (and therefore the overall interest rate) is low, the present value of future cash flows is higher. As such, there is an inverse relationship between inflation and PE multiples. As inflation rises, PE ratios fall (and vice versa). Historically, the average PE ratio has been equal to 20 minus the inflation rate. See article here, WSJ.

Issuers Continue to Use Long Term Bonds

The government of Austria just issued a 70-year bond, locking in a low rate of 1.5%. Issuers are taking advantage of low borrowing costs, with some even going out 100 years (so-called century bonds). See article here, Bloomberg.

Interest Rates and Intrinsic Value

In theory, the intrinsic value of a financial asset is simply the present value (PV) of its future cash flows. As in any PV calculation, the discount rate is determined by the market interest rate plus a risk premium. With lower interest rates, all else equal, PV is higher. Thus, if market interest rates rise, asset values (and associated market prices) could be set for a fall. See article here, WSJ.

Yield Curve Flattens

The spread between short- and long-term government bonds has decreased, creating a so-called flatter yield curve. This move has been driven by two factors. First, there is an increased belief that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which has driven up the yields on shorter-term bonds. Second, foreign buyers have been acquiring longer-term U.S. bonds as they have a higher yield than their home country offers. This has pushed down the yield of longer term bonds, creating the flatter yield curve. See article here, WSJ.

Negative Interest Rates

Sweden's central bank has followed other major countries and further reduced its interest rate -- making it even more negative. With negative interest rates, banks that store money with the central bank must pay to do so (rather than earning interest as would normally be the case). The goal is to induce banks to hold less money (thereby lending more and increasing economic activity). See article here, The Telegraph.

Yield Curve Irrelevant?

When longer term interest rates fall below shorter term interest rates (a so-called inverted yield curve), economists generally warn of an impending recession. However, with short term rates so low, the usefulness of this indicator may be fading. See article here, Bloomberg.

Interest Rate Positioning

Municipal bonds are a special type of bond that are particularly attractive to wealthy investors due to the tax benefits they provide. However, like other bonds, their prices will drop if interest rates rise. With many experts expecting the Fed to raise rates, bond managers are increasing cash holdings to position themselves for the impact of the rate increase. See article here, Reuters.

Here's a good "TIPS"

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, offer investors a lower coupon rate; however, in exchange, investors receive protection against the negative impact of inflation. Higher inflation leads to a loss in purchasing power, as well as higher interest rates, which reduce bond prices. The inflation protection offered by TIPS offsets these impacts by increasing the face value (called the accrued principal) in line with inflation, meaning that periodic coupon payments rise with inflation, as does the return of principal at maturity. See this Bloomberg article for a discussion of why TIPS are back in favor.

Rising Interest Rates

Interest rates have remained at historically low levels since 2008; however, with the recovering economy and the prospect of the Fed reducing its intervention, it is likely that interest rates will rise. Such a move will reduce bond prices, particularly longer-term bonds, so what asset classes should investors consider? A recent Wall Street Journal article suggests that certain equity sectors (e.g., energy, financials, and consumer discretionary) tend to perform well (at least relatively) in such environments. See article here.

Floating Rate Notes

As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Given historically low interest rates, many investors are concerned about bond prices, particularly since the loose monetary policy being implemented by the Fed may trigger inflation and therefore higher future interest rates. To hedge away this interest rate risk, some investors have used inflation protected securities. The Treasury, however, just launched another alternative -- floating rate notes. The interest paid on these notes rise as market rates rise, thereby also protecting the bond's price. See article here, WSJ.

Bonds = Safe Investment?

As the recent offering of bonds by Apple illustrates, bonds are subject to their own types of risk. In particular, price risk exists since prices react to changes in interest rates. As is the case with the Apple bonds, a recent rise in rates has significantly reduced the price of these bonds, leading to a capital loss for bondholders. See article here, International Finance Review.

Bond Portfolio Duration

Duration is a measure of the effective maturity of a bond or bond portfolio. A higher duration is indicative of higher price risk, particularly in response to changing rates. Thus, if interest rates rise and bond prices fall, a bond with a higher duration will experience a sharper drop in price. Given the relatively low level of interest rates in the current market, bond investors have moved to lower duration portfolios, as protection against expected increases in rates. (See article here, Wall Street Journal.)

Negative Bond Yields

During the Crash of 2008, a "flight to quality" drove yields to unprecedented low levels. In fact, many Treasuries were being issued with negative yields, meaning investors were paying the government to safely hold their money. Recently, with the crisis in Europe, German bonds have exhibited similar negative yields.See link here, CNN Money.

"Dumb Money" Pushing Treasuries

Demand for Treasury bonds pushes prices up and yields lower. Given that Treasury yields are at all-time lows, the implication is that demand for these securities has increased. Many attribute this to buying by the Fed, but this demand is really being driven by retail investors. For contrarian investors, this would be an indicator to sell Treasuries, as retail investors are often referred to as "dumb money." See the article here, CNBC.

Expect Low Interest Rates to Continue

As the "flight to quality" continues, interest rates will likely remain low for the nations considered to be the most stable (such as the U.S. and Germany). This is a simple supply and demand relationship, as interest rates represent the price of money. (See the article here, the Wall Street Journal.)

Germany Sells 0% YTM Bond

With the problems in Greece (and other Euro countries), investors are seeking out safe havens. Similar to Treasuries during the Crash of 2008, investors are willing to accept no return, simply for the assurance that funds will be kept safe. (See article here, Reuters)