Monday, May 13, 2013
Hot Market?
Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have increased in size and number during the recent bull market. IPOs tend to follow market cycles, particularly in environments where volatility is less pronounced. This gives firms more pricing stability, combined with increased investor appetite -- obviously the right mix for IPOs.(See article here, WSJ.)
Man vs. Machine
It has always been difficult (if not impossible) to consistently beat the market -- so called "market efficiency." However, it may be even more difficult with the advent of quantitative systems trading -- i.e., algorithmic trading. (See article here, WSJ.)
Friday, May 10, 2013
Margin Debt
Margin debt hit its highest level ($379.5 billion) since July 2007. The increase is being driven by low rates and a rising market. As history shows, however, this level of debt could accelerate a small downturn in the market. (See article here, WSJ.)
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Target Date Funds
Target Date (or "lifecycle") Funds are investments on "auto pilot." Fund managers allocate assets across funds based on the set (target) retirement date and manage the allocation accordingly as time passes. These funds are best suited as "all or nothing" investments, meaning investors should put all their money in a target date fund or else manage their assets on their own. Unfortunately, many investors allocate funds to lifecycle investments as if it were its own investment category. This is particularly true in retirement plans where participants often exhibit the "1/n" phenomenon, allocating there money equally across the "n" investments in the plan -- target date funds included. (See related article here, CNN Money.)
Friday, April 26, 2013
Google Search
A recent study (See paper here, Nature) finds that the level of searches by particular terms is highly correlated to overall portfolio returns, particularly when trading strategies are based on these terms. The idea is that the search terms are a predictor of trading behavior, whether bullish or bearish.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Efficient Markets?
Market efficiency comprises two aspects. First, markets respond quickly to new information. Secondly, and often overlooked, the market responds accurately to this information. The recent twitter hoax (See article here, USA Today) is just one example of the market responding quickly to new information. Whether it is accurate or not is where the debate rages.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Circuit Breakers
Following the "Flash Crash" in 2010, the SEC implemented new trading curbs. Following continued discussion, these curbs have been updated once again--for both individual stocks and the market as a whole. See this Bloomberg article and this NYSE summary.
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