Vanguard vs. the Industry

For years, Jack Bogle (the founder of Vanguard) has touted the benefit of passive investing, which is primarily driven by the relatively low fees they charge. Moreover,  Bogle has highlighted the inability of active investors to outperform the market. Recent large investor flows into Vanguard products suggests that investors are increasingly agreeing with Bogle. See article here, WSJ.

Time to Sell?

For technical traders, it may be time to sell. While the market has yet to make a "death cross," some other indicators are saying sell. In particular, a recent WSJ article identified three signals that recently occurred in tandem: overvaluation based on earnings multiples, extreme divergence in sector performance, and excessive levels of bullish enthusiasm. This combination has occurred six times since 1970, with each event resulting in market drops of at least 22%. Will this happen again?

Do Women Generate Better Returns?

Some prior research suggests that women make for better investors, primarily because they generally trade less than men (meaning lower transaction costs). However, a new fund aims to exploit the benefit women may provide as board members. The Barclays Women in Leadership ETN will invest in companies with a female CEO or a board that has a membership of at least 25% women. See here for an article that discusses the new fund (WSJ).

See previous post (ETFs vs. ETNs) for a discussion of the fund structure.

Going Global

For diversification reasons, most investors should consider investing internationally. However, many investors have limited knowledge about how to do so or about how to determine how much exposure to have internationally. Click here for a recent WSJ article that provides some guidance on these issues.

Catastrophe Bonds

Bonds are typically viewed as very conservative investments with relatively simple terms. However, the industry is quite complicated and offers some higher risk securities. For example, catastrophe bonds (or "cat-bonds") have normal cash repayments to lenders, except if a pre-defined catastrophe (hurricane, wildfire, earthquake, etc.) occurs. In this event, all bond cash flows cease. For obvious reasons, these are popular among issuers in the insurance industry, and the primary buyers are hedge funds (primarily due to the higher risk/return profile such bonds offer). See a related article here, Bloomberg.

ROE and Leverage

Return on equity (ROE) can be decomposed into three pieces, the so-called DuPont Identity: Net profit margin, total asset turnover, and the equity multiplier. The equity multiplier is a measure of leverage, so firms that add financial leverage (i.e., debt) to their balance sheet can increase ROE, as long as the product of the other two factors (i.e.,  return on assets) is positive. In the standard growth model for pricing stocks, this would generally have a positive impact on stock price, but note that it does add risk to the potential outcome, i.e., leverage. See article here, The Economist.

Triple Crown and the Stock Market

The "Super Bowl Indicator" is widely known, as the winner of the Super Bowl has been correlated to overall stock market performance. While this does not imply causation, is does make for an interesting discussion of market efficiency. A similar item is the performance of the stock market in years when a horse wins the Triple Crown--the results are not good. So, many people may be watching how California Chrome does in the upcoming Belmont Stakes. See article here, WSJ.