Floating Rate Notes

As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Given historically low interest rates, many investors are concerned about bond prices, particularly since the loose monetary policy being implemented by the Fed may trigger inflation and therefore higher future interest rates. To hedge away this interest rate risk, some investors have used inflation protected securities. The Treasury, however, just launched another alternative -- floating rate notes. The interest paid on these notes rise as market rates rise, thereby also protecting the bond's price. See article here, WSJ.

Timing Matters -- Dollar Weighted Returns.

While a mutual fund manager may make good decisions that result in a positive return, if investors time cash flows incorrectly, they will end up with lower (even negative) returns. This illustrates the difference between time weighted and dollar weighted returns. Unfortunately, the average investor succumbs to human nature, buying high and selling low, instead of the opposite. See a good summary article here, WSJ.

Covered Calls

A Covered Call is created by purchasing stock and simultaneously writing a call on that stock. The position limits upside, as the stock will be called away if the price rises above the exercise price. But, the premium from selling the call provides extra income, which is the primary reason for executing such a strategy. See the article here, WSJ.

Retirement Planning -- Start Early

Many people are not prepared for retirement. Older workers do not have enough money saved, and younger workers are not starting soon enough. See some survey results here, WSJ. You should also take the quiz to see where you stand.

Changing Tick Sizes?

In 2001, exchanges began listing stock prices in penny increments, as opposed to fractions such as 1/8th or 1/16th of a dollar. The change was intended to simplify pricing and reduce bid-ask spreads. Recently, however, there has been an increasing call to move to higher increments (such as nickel or dime pricing). The rationale is that such a move would promote trading and reduce volatility. It doesn't hurt that it would also allow trading firms to generate more profit. See article here, WSJ.

Valuing Twitter's IPO

Twitter recently announced (via a tweet) that they would be going public. While valuation is difficult in general, it is particularly problematic for an IPO. Read a good summary article here, Yahoo!.

The Dow Shuffle

While it is viewed as a major stock market barometer, the Dow Jones Industrial Average only follows 30 companies, and every so often the set of companies changes. The recent shuffle eliminated Alcoa, Bank of America, and HP, while adding Goldman Sachs, Visa, and Nike. The primary reason was the low prices of the eliminated companies. While most indexes are value weighted, the Dow is price weighted, meaning lower priced stocks exert little influence. This is also the reason why Apple will likely not be added -- with its "high" stock price. See a good summary here, Wall Street Journal. Read a good Q & A here, Yahoo! Finance.

Jumbo Mortgages and Securitization

After a home buyer secures a loan from a bank (i.e., a mortgage), the bank often securitizes the loans, which means they package them for sale to investors. This process is much easier if the loans are backed by Fannie and Freddie, the government sponsored mortgage agencies. Fannie and Freddie, however, will only back loans below certain values -- the so-called jumbo loans. This amount has generally been capped at $417,000 (although higher in certain high-cost areas). Regulators plan to lower these caps, which means jumbo loans may be harder to come by since it will be more difficult to securitize such loans. See article here, LA Times.

Preferred Stock

Preferred stock, also called perpetual stock, is considered a type of hybrid security. It has characteristics of debt, the primary of which is a fixed dividend. However, it also has similarities to equity, in that it is equity, so the dividend is not guaranteed. So, it has higher risk than comparable bonds, but less risk (and less upside) than common stock. Moreover, the price of preferred stock is primarily responsive to changes in interest rates (i.e., like a bond). See related article here, Wall Street Journal.

Exchange Consolidation

BATS and Direct Edge, two large electronic exchanges, are merging to form the second largest exchange operator in the United States, taking over the ranking currently held by Nasdaq. This change exhibits the transformation of the industry toward electronic trading. While electronic increases speed and likely lowers trading costs, it doesn't come without risks, as the recent Nasdaq outage illustrates. See article here, Wall Street Journal.

Even Adults Like "Happy Meals"

Higher risk companies, in order to sell bonds at lower interest rates, must often attach "sweetners" to the bond offering. Historically this has included warrants or conversion options. Recently, however, some companies have offered a combination of bonds and a loan of the company's shares, a so-called "Happy Meal." The bond buyers subsequently sell the shares short. If the company fails, the investors lose on the bonds, but make a profit on the short sale. This strategy is typically employed by hedge funds. See article here, Wall Street Journal.

P/E Ratios

Most investors know that the PE multiple is the ratio of price to earnings. While the market price is easy to agree upon, the earnings number that should be used in the ratio is not. Some investors prefer historical earnings, while others focus on forecasted earnings. Each of these approaches can provide widely different PE estimates, making comparison difficult. See article here, Wall Street Journal.

Broker vs. Advisor

Over the past decade, more retail investment professionals have transitioned away from a pure broker relationship to a more advisory role. This switch is potentially good for both sides, as it reduces the incentive to churn (i.e., excessively trade) an account simply to generate commissions, while also providing a more stable revenue for the advisor. See article here, Financial-Planning.com.

Market Timing vs. Market Efficiency

Market timers may occasionally be correct, but it takes more than a few right calls to beat the market over the long term. In reality, this continued success is virtually impossible. See the article here, Wall Street Journal.

Municipal Bond Risk -- Detroit

Municipal bonds usually have a lower yield to maturity than comparable US Treasury bonds. While this would normally be indicative of lower risk, it is purely a function of the tax advantages they provide. However, as the recent Detroit, MI bankruptcy filing suggests, municipals do indeed carry higher risk. (See article here, Yahoo! Finance.)

IPO Advice

IPOs generally experience a positive first day return, so-called underpricing. However, this return primarily accrues to those who are fortunate enough to receive an allocation of shares at the offer price. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal provides some advice for those interested in investing in IPOs. See the article here.

Bonds = Safe Investment?

As the recent offering of bonds by Apple illustrates, bonds are subject to their own types of risk. In particular, price risk exists since prices react to changes in interest rates. As is the case with the Apple bonds, a recent rise in rates has significantly reduced the price of these bonds, leading to a capital loss for bondholders. See article here, International Finance Review.

Pray for a Bear Market?

Most investors save for retirement using company sponsored 401(k) plans -- making investments into the account every month. This is a form of dollar cost averaging. For this type of investment, a bear market might be the best situation, as it will enable investors to buy more shares at lower prices. Since we want to "buy low and sell high," this downward volatility might actually help us. This is counter to what many people would think. See a related article here, Wall Street Journal.

Options for Everyone?

Options (and derivatives in general) are often painted by the media as financial time bombs. While they can be used for speculative trading, they can also be used for hedging as well. Unfortunately, many smaller investors are not skilled in their use, which has led to significant losses for many. See article here, NY Times.

Central Banks Propel Equity Markets

Japan's central bank recently instituted a significant expansionary monetary policy. The market's immediate response was to increase, and the rise has continued since the announcement. Easy money provides liquidity. While this can be offset by inflation, the lack of wage growth has kept inflation muted. Thus, equity markets have responded favorably. See article here, The Economist.

Trading Issues

This is an excellent read on the mechanics of market microstructure, particularly as it relates to "mini-crashes" in individual stocks: Erroneous Combustion, CFA Institute.

This article discusses the efficacy (or lack thereof) of the new limit up / limit down circuit breakers on individual stocks: The Trade.

Hot Market?

Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have increased in size and number during the recent bull market. IPOs tend to follow market cycles, particularly in environments where volatility is less pronounced. This gives firms more pricing stability, combined with increased investor appetite -- obviously the right mix for IPOs.(See article here, WSJ.)

Man vs. Machine

It has always been difficult (if not impossible) to consistently beat the market -- so called "market efficiency." However, it may be even more difficult with the advent of quantitative systems trading -- i.e., algorithmic trading. (See article here, WSJ.)

Margin Debt

Margin debt hit its highest level ($379.5 billion) since July 2007. The increase is being driven by low rates and a rising market. As history shows, however, this level of debt could accelerate a small downturn in the market. (See article here, WSJ.)

Target Date Funds

Target Date (or "lifecycle") Funds are investments on "auto pilot." Fund managers allocate assets across funds based on the set (target) retirement date and manage the allocation accordingly as time passes. These funds are best suited as "all or nothing" investments, meaning investors should put all their money in a target date fund or else manage their assets on their own. Unfortunately, many investors allocate funds to lifecycle investments as if it were its own investment category. This is particularly true in retirement plans where participants often exhibit the "1/n" phenomenon, allocating there money equally across the "n" investments in the plan -- target date funds included. (See related article here, CNN Money.)

Google Search

A recent study (See paper here, Nature) finds that the level of searches by particular terms is highly correlated to overall portfolio returns, particularly when trading strategies are based on these terms. The idea is that the search terms are a predictor of trading behavior, whether bullish or bearish.

Efficient Markets?

Market efficiency comprises two aspects. First, markets respond quickly to new information. Secondly, and often overlooked, the market responds accurately to this information. The recent twitter hoax (See article here, USA Today) is just one example of the market responding quickly to new information. Whether it is accurate or not is where the debate rages.

Circuit Breakers

Following the "Flash Crash" in 2010, the SEC implemented new trading curbs. Following continued discussion, these curbs have been updated once again--for both individual stocks and the market as a whole. See this Bloomberg article and this NYSE summary.

Exit Strategies

Unfortunately, picking the next winning stock is only half the battle. Many investments have strong gains, but end up losing because investors fail to exit their holdings at the right time. Trailing stop orders are one way to help mitigate this issue. (See article here, Yahoo Finance.)

History Lesson: Momentum

We often talk about buying low and selling high, but many individual investors often do the opposite. Particularly in retail accounts and 401(k) plans, investors are often "late to the party," waiting until the market hits a high to reenter. This behavioral bias results in momentum that may drive the market higher, but how long is the key question. Further, investors would be better suited taking a more disciplined periodic investment approach. With the market just hitting a high, this issue is currently at play. (See article here, WSJ.)

Death Cross for Gold

For technical traders, a death cross is definitely a sell sign. A death cross occurs when a shorter term moving average (such as the 50 day) crosses a longer term moving average (such as the 200 day) to the downside. Gold recently experienced such an event. However, fundamental traders are often at odds with this belief. (See article here, Yahoo Finance.)

If you don't want to be an engineer....

Recent surveys suggest that engineers (chemical, mechanical, etc.) are the highest earning undergraduate majors -- most in the $60-65K range. Finance is the next highest, at $57,600. So, it seems you have made a good investment by selecting finance as your major. (See article here, Fox Business / Business News Daily.)

Bond Portfolio Duration

Duration is a measure of the effective maturity of a bond or bond portfolio. A higher duration is indicative of higher price risk, particularly in response to changing rates. Thus, if interest rates rise and bond prices fall, a bond with a higher duration will experience a sharper drop in price. Given the relatively low level of interest rates in the current market, bond investors have moved to lower duration portfolios, as protection against expected increases in rates. (See article here, Wall Street Journal.)

Increased Leverage = Less Risk?

All else equal, the use of leverage increases investment risk. But, can it ever have the opposite effect? Investors using the so-called risk parity trade believe the answer is yes. Under this approach, a portfolio is built using equity and debt, but the debt is purchased using leverage. The strategy is based on two key points: (1) equity is more volatile than debt and (2) debt returns are negatively correlated to equity returns. Thus, with leverage, the debt returns are in effect more volatile. When combined, the negative correlation creates a less risky portfolio as the equity and debt returns balance each other out. See article here, Wall Street Journal.

R-Squared and Fund Selection

R-squared is the correlation (i.e., r) of a fund to its benchmark index multiplied by itself (i.e., squared). R-squared measures how closely a fund tracks its respective index. A recent article (see here, Wall Street Journal) suggests that investors should search for actively managed funds with low R-squareds, as this suggests the manager is truly trying to add value by concentrating on specific sectors of the benchmark universe. However, doing so increases systematic risk. So, there is a tradeoff.

Circuit Breakers in Response to Flash Crash

Following the "Flash Crash," the exchanges implemented single stock circuit breakers (in addition to the market-wide constraints that already existed). These new circuit breakers are already under review, with planned changes set to go into effect in April. See article here, Bloomberg.

Snow Futures?

Futures contracts are typically viewed as speculative investments; however, much of the activity in such contracts is the result of hedging. For example, insurance companies use weather derivatives to hedge exposure to natural disasters, while farmers and food producers would transact in agricultural futures. The most recent addition to such categories is snow futures. See article here, CME Group.

Are Hedge Funds Worth It?

Hedge funds typically charge high fees for their services -- generally a 2% yearly management fee plus 20% of profits. When this is factored in, most investors would be better off choosing a low cost ETF. See article here, The Economist.