Dollar Weighted Returns and Market Timing

Retail investors are generally poor market timers. As such, the return they actually earn (what we call dollar weighted, or asset weighted, returns) is generally much lower then the return a fund manager otherwise provides (what we would call compounded buy and hold returns). Check out this article (WSJ) for more on the return gap across different fund types and different levels of market volatility. 

Index Funds Win Again

For the 12th straight year, index funds have outperformed a majority of actively managed funds. In fact, in 2021, 85% of US large-cap equity managers underperformed the S&P500. Interestingly, at the stock level, only 22% of the stocks in the S&P500 outperformed the index over the last 20 years, suggesting that a small number of stocks drive the majority of returns. See article here, Yahoo!.

Here Comes Santa Claus

 See here (yahoo! finance) for more on the so-called "Santa Claus Rally." The five trading days before Christmas, combined with the two after, are, on average, the best seven trading days of the year.

Active Managers Underperform Again

Active managers are supposed to do better in volatile markets, such as in 2018. However, the results are in, and a lower percentage of active managers outperformed the market -- just 38%. Over the past ten years, this drops to 24%. See article here, WSJ.

Passive Funds Continue to Grow

As of the end of 2018, passively managed funds now represent about 48 percent of fund investment, and Bloomberg is reporting that they expect passively managed funds to overtake actively managed mutual funds by the end of 2019.

Active Managers Struggle Again

Once again, active managers have struggled to outperform market indexes. In fact, over the past year, only 36% of actively managed funds have beaten the index. This result provides additional support for the inflow of investment into passively managed funds. See article here, WSJ.

Passive Investing Continues to Gain Momentum

Actively managed mutual funds have lagged passively managed funds, particularly over longer investment periods. Much of this is likely due to the lower fees charged by passively managed funds. As investors have become more knowledgeable about this relationship, money has flowed at a faster rate into passively managed funds. See article here, WSJ.

Mutual Fund Managers Miss Out on Apple Rebound

Apple stock has had a strong return this quarter, rising over 20%. However, almost 300 mutual funds sold their positions in Apple prior to this rebound. So, are professional managers really better than individual investors? Is this evidence in favor of market efficiency? See article here, Bloomberg.

China Suspends Circuit Breakers

Circuit breakers are designed to slow down (or even halt) panicked selling. However, Chinese authorities recently suspended their newly implemented circuit breakers, as they seemed to be increasing panic (as opposed to reducing it). See article here, Finance Asia.

Warren Buffet Criticizes Money Managers

Warren Buffet, a pillar of active management, suggests that most investors are best served by investing in passive index funds. This is primarily due to the high fees charged by managers, particularly those in hedge funds. See article here, Yahoo.

More Evidence for Efficient Markets

The market's performance this year has surpassed that of most professional money managers. In fact, this is the worst (relative) year in three decades for professionals (see post here, The Reformed Broker). The level of competition and the high level of fees prevent meaningful outperformance. The result -- a large influx of capital into index funds.

Fund Manager Performance

Fund managers, on average, have historically trailed the broad market. However, this year has been exceptionally bad for managers, with only 23% of large-cap funds outperforming the index. See this article (WSJ) for some explanation from Goldman Sachs.

Triple Crown and the Stock Market

The "Super Bowl Indicator" is widely known, as the winner of the Super Bowl has been correlated to overall stock market performance. While this does not imply causation, is does make for an interesting discussion of market efficiency. A similar item is the performance of the stock market in years when a horse wins the Triple Crown--the results are not good. So, many people may be watching how California Chrome does in the upcoming Belmont Stakes. See article here, WSJ.

High Frequency Trading and Market Efficiency

Arbitrage is, essentially, taking advantage of mispricing across (or within) markets to earn a risk-free profit. In an efficient market, such opportunities would be rare. A recent Fed report (see article here, Bloomberg) finds that high frequency traders have effectively reduced the number of arbitrage opportunities, thereby improving market efficiency.

Active vs. Passive

Market efficiency suggests that passive funds are the way to go, and average returns tend to support this. However, other investors prefer active strategies. Maybe the answer is not "either....or." As a recent Wall Street Journal article reports, both may provide benefits. See article here.

Technical Analysis

While many investors (particularly those who subscribe to market efficiency) suggest that technical analysis is worthless, market participants still generally track charts, including resistance and support levels, as well as moving averages. With the market recently testing its support and bouncing to higher levels, technical analysts will continue to monitor charts to see if the positive momentum can continue. See article here, Reuters.

Market Timing vs. Market Efficiency

Market timers may occasionally be correct, but it takes more than a few right calls to beat the market over the long term. In reality, this continued success is virtually impossible. See the article here, Wall Street Journal.

Man vs. Machine

It has always been difficult (if not impossible) to consistently beat the market -- so called "market efficiency." However, it may be even more difficult with the advent of quantitative systems trading -- i.e., algorithmic trading. (See article here, WSJ.)

Efficient Markets?

Market efficiency comprises two aspects. First, markets respond quickly to new information. Secondly, and often overlooked, the market responds accurately to this information. The recent twitter hoax (See article here, USA Today) is just one example of the market responding quickly to new information. Whether it is accurate or not is where the debate rages.

Insider Trading

Insider trading (i.e., trading on material nonpublic information) is illegal. However, corporate executives are allowed to trade stock in the firms they manage. This is difficult to reconcile since these executives, in all likelihood, have such information. A recent study by the Wall Street Journal found that executives trading ahead of corporate earnings announcements earned substantially higher returns (or avoided substantially lower losses). See article here.