Correlation Concerns

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is based on the notion that diversification creates better (a.k.a., more efficient) portfolios. The benefit of the diversification stems from less than perfect correlations between asset classes. However, during times of extreme stress, and even in recent years with market integration, correlation values have increased. This calls into question whether diversification will bring the full benefit that it is expected to provide. See article here, Bloomberg.

Negative Interest Rates

Sweden's central bank has followed other major countries and further reduced its interest rate -- making it even more negative. With negative interest rates, banks that store money with the central bank must pay to do so (rather than earning interest as would normally be the case). The goal is to induce banks to hold less money (thereby lending more and increasing economic activity). See article here, The Telegraph.

Credit Default Swaps Signal Warning

Credit Default Swaps allow investors to hedge the risk of default on underlying debt, essentially acting as put options. Recently, CDS prices on the debt of banks such as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have increased in price, signaling a larger possibility of default. Many investors view CDS prices as a barometer of faith, thereby suggesting that bank stocks are poised for further declines. See article here, WSJ.

Short Covering in Oil Drives Prices

Suppliers reported an increase in crude oil inventories, yet contrary to supply and demand fundamentals, prices rose. Much of this is attributed to short sellers covering their positions at what is expected to be the low point in prices. See article here, Reuters.

Yield Curve Irrelevant?

When longer term interest rates fall below shorter term interest rates (a so-called inverted yield curve), economists generally warn of an impending recession. However, with short term rates so low, the usefulness of this indicator may be fading. See article here, Bloomberg.