Early Recession Signs

In economics, leading indicators are believed to give a forecast of the direction of the economy. In a recent survey, the CFA Institute asked its members which early warning signs (or leading indicators) they follow. Below are the results:

What is the best empirical early-warning sign of a recession for analysts to follow?

Nonperforming loans	37%
Auto sales	20%
Other	18%
Home sales	17%
Consumer-electronic sales	6%
Convenience store/drugstore sales	2%